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Open-sourced AI LLM to top the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at EoY No: real money 94%, play money 91% Yes: real money 6%, play money 9% Volume: real money 227.33181344, play money 24845.04 Bettors: real money 2, play money 14 Categories: Finance, Artificial Intelligence Related markets Which company will have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? (ID: 231720) Volume: real 2813.84562335, play 249130.43471734 Bettors: real 47, play 63 Leading (real money): Anthropic 76% Leading (play money): Anthropic 74%

Open-sourced AI LLM to top the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at EoY

Market Rules

For this market’s purposes, an open-source Artificial Intelligence (AI) Large Language Model (LLM) is defined as a model based upon a machine learning framework whose source code and underlying algorithms are freely available for anyone to use, modify, and distribute.

If the model holding the number one position on the "Overall" ranking of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2024, at 11:59 p.m. (UTC-3), is an open-source LLM this market will resolve to "Yes".

Any updates or changes to the leaderboard after this time will not affect the market resolution. If the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard is unavailable or ceases to be updated, an alternative credible source, such as a widely recognized AI research publication or authority, might be used to determine the top AI model.

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