Will the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026?
Market Rules
This market aims to predict whether the United States federal fiscal deficit for Fiscal Year 2026 (October 1, 2025 – September 30, 2026) will be at least $1 trillion lower than the deficit recorded for Fiscal Year 2025 (October 1, 2024 – September 30, 2025).
Verification will rely on official government data, primarily from the U.S. Treasury’s 2026 Financial Report of the United States Government and September 2026’s Monthly Treasury Statement. Secondary confirmation may come from reports from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and reputable financial and economic media sources if they cite official government data. The market will measure the reduction in nominal dollars (not as a percentage of GDP) and will not be adjusted for inflation.
If the deficit increases, remains unchanged, or is reduced by less than $1 trillion compared to Fiscal Year 2025, the market will resolve as "No." Revisions to deficit figures made after the official Fiscal Year 2026 report is released will not affect resolution. In case of conflicting figures, priority will be given to the U.S. Treasury's official data at the time of the market’s resolution.