Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether any son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro (Carlos, Eduardo, Flávio, or Renan Bolsonaro) will be arrested at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, an “arrest” means physical detention by law enforcement authorities with the intent to hold the person in custody. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmation from competent law enforcement or judicial authorities (e.g., official statements or court/custody records).
If any of the individuals listed above is arrested (as defined) during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". An arrest will count for "Yes" even if it is brief or followed by release on bail. If official documentation is delayed or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from multiple major, editorially independent news organizations. Resolution will reflect whether an arrest occurred, not minor technicalities about reporting format. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.
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