Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts whether a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will be formally reached at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). For this market, a qualifying outcome means an officially announced ceasefire or peace agreement accepted by both parties. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, or jointly acknowledged agreements communicated through official channels.
If an officially announced ceasefire or peace agreement accepted by both Russia and Ukraine is confirmed during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Temporary battlefield pauses, unilateral declarations, or unaccepted proposals will not count. If official announcements are unclear or disputed, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations describing acceptance by both sides. Resolution will reflect the substantive agreement between the parties, not minor technicalities. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.