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Cuba still a one-party state at the end of 2026? Yes: real money 90%, play money 87% No: real money 10%, play money 13% Volume: real money 147.95278023, play money 10300.1022 Bettors: real money 9, play money 5 Categories: Politics, Latin America, Cuba Related markets Will Raúl Castro be taken into US custody by the end of 2026? (ID: 239703) Volume: real 167.83405191, play 10960.33563639 Bettors: real 5, play 5 Leading (real money): Will Raúl Castro be taken into US custody by the end of 2026? 16% Leading (play money): Will Raúl Castro be taken into US custody by the end of 2026? 21% Díaz-Canel still President of Cuba through the end of 2026? (ID: 231588) Volume: real 759.46448546, play 30867.62183806 Bettors: real 15, play 20 Leading (real money): Díaz-Canel still President of Cuba through the end of 2026? 60% Leading (play money): Díaz-Canel still President of Cuba through the end of 2026? 89% Bernardo Arévalo to finish his presidential term in Guatemala? (ID: 179586) Volume: real 226.16548106, play 11444.11428295 Bettors: real 10, play 15 Leading (real money): Bernardo Arévalo to finish his presidential term in Guatemala? 80% Leading (play money): Bernardo Arévalo to finish his presidential term in Guatemala? 77%

Cuba still a one-party state at the end of 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts whether Cuba will continue to operate as a one-party state through December 31, 2026. For this market, a one-party state means that only a single political party is legally recognized to govern. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Cuban government or constitutional announcements regarding party recognition.

If Cuba continues to legally recognize only one governing political party through the end of December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Partial recognition of opposition parties without genuine legal pluralism may require intent-based judgment by Futuur. If official information is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect the substantive legal framework, not cosmetic political changes. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.

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