Will South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?

This event predicts whether South Korea will possess at least one operational nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be authoritative confirmations from the South Korean government, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), or other internationally recognized bodies confirming possession of a nuclear weapon.

If authoritative sources confirm that South Korea possesses an operational nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Public statements, political debate, or hypothetical discussions about nuclear armament will not count. If confirmation is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations citing authoritative assessments. Resolution will reflect actual possession of a nuclear weapon, not intent or rhetoric. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.