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Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Market Rules

This market predicts whether SpaceX will successfully demonstrate in-orbit refueling of a Starship vehicle during calendar year 2026. If, during this period, SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship vehicle to another Starship vehicle while both are in Earth orbit, and the transfer is publicly confirmed by SpaceX as a successful propellant transfer, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The Primary Designated Source is SpaceX's official communications (spacex.com, X account @SpaceX, official mission webcasts), supported by NASA and FAA mission reports where applicable. A consensus of credible reporting by reliable news outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion may be used to confirm the demonstration. In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.

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