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Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026? Yes: real money 22%, play money 20% No: real money 78%, play money 80% Volume: real money 100.07014705, play money 11252.6803192 Bettors: real money 2, play money 4 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, GDP Related markets China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? (ID: 133863) Volume: real 1585.53526888, play 239086.56612449 Bettors: real 35, play 510 Leading (real money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 100% Leading (play money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 9% Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 2045.00877596, play 37932.49135976 Bettors: real 23, play 85 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 46% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 38% Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 1191.27659465, play 132756.26315896 Bettors: real 81, play 105 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2609.88778546, play 117617.43955531 Bettors: real 39, play 212 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 72% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3012.83733208, play 138410.80600485 Bettors: real 30, play 210 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 2% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 55%

Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Market Rules

This market predicts whether the United States will report negative real GDP growth in at least one of the first three quarters of 2026 (Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026). If the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports a seasonally adjusted, annualized real GDP growth rate of less than 0% for any of Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026 — based on the BEA's third (final) estimate for that quarter, or the most recent published estimate available by December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC — this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The Primary Designated Source is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product release. Resolution uses the third estimate (final) where available, otherwise the most recent BEA estimate for the quarter as of December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC. A consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg) may confirm the BEA figures. In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.

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