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Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline? Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive): real money 50%, play money 50% Between 1.39 °C and 1.42 °C (inclusive): real money 18%, play money 18% Between 1.48 °C and 1.51 °C (inclusive): real money 18%, play money 18% 1.52 °C or higher: real money 7%, play money 11% Below 1.39 °C: real money 7%, play money 7% Volume: real money 0.30046753, play money 3260.7021384 Bettors: real money 6, play money 8 Categories: Science, Environmental Indicators Related markets China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? (ID: 133863) Volume: real 1711.95573343, play 247606.92725054 Bettors: real 35, play 510 Leading (real money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 100% Leading (play money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 9% Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 1042.78421446, play 47149.79154275 Bettors: real 63, play 55 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026? (ID: 239444) Volume: real 3014.62666363, play 9707.83641566 Bettors: real 34, play 33 Leading (real money): Between $ 60,000 and $ 74,999.99 60% Leading (play money): Between $ 60,000 and $ 74,999.99 31% Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC (ID: 138696) Volume: real 316.75459546, play 17377.8751826 Bettors: real 23, play 58 Leading (real money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 43% Leading (play money): Greater than 4.21 mm 76%

Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Market Rules

What will the global average surface air temperature anomaly for the full year 2026 be, expressed in degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline? Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive range; exactly one will resolve "Yes".

The Primary Designated Source is the Data Action Foundation's Climate Change Tracker. Resolution uses the first Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly value reported by the tracker for the full year 2026 (timestamped after 2026). If the methodology changes substantially, Futuur might follow the same methodology to calculate the value for 2026. Otherwise, this question may be annulled.

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