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Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline? 1.52 °C or higher: real money 23%, play money 10% Between 1.48 °C and 1.51 °C (inclusive): real money 17%, play money 17% Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive): real money 38%, play money 48% Between 1.39 °C and 1.42 °C (inclusive): real money 15%, play money 17% Below 1.39 °C: real money 6%, play money 6% Volume: real money 614.45565682, play money 3260.7021384 Bettors: real money 14, play money 8 Categories: Science, Environmental Indicators Related markets China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? (ID: 133863) Volume: real 1711.95573343, play 248684.5794556 Bettors: real 35, play 510 Leading (real money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 100% Leading (play money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 8% Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 8316.63466162, play 116640.461289 Bettors: real 73, play 76 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026? (ID: 239444) Volume: real 4430.78763579, play 85766.45903109 Bettors: real 48, play 49 Leading (real money): Between $ 75,000 and $ 89,999.99 47% Leading (play money): Between $ 75,000 and $ 89,999.99 34% Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC (ID: 138696) Volume: real 316.75459546, play 17381.5251826 Bettors: real 23, play 60 Leading (real money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 46% Leading (play money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 62%

Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Market Rules

What will the global average surface air temperature anomaly for the full year 2026 be, expressed in degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline? Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive range; exactly one will resolve "Yes".

The Primary Designated Source is the Data Action Foundation's Climate Change Tracker. Resolution uses the first Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly value reported by the tracker for the full year 2026 (timestamped after 2026). If the methodology changes substantially, Futuur might follow the same methodology to calculate the value for 2026. Otherwise, this question may be annulled.

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