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Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline? Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive): real money 50%, play money 50% Between 1.39 °C and 1.42 °C (inclusive): real money 18%, play money 18% Between 1.48 °C and 1.51 °C (inclusive): real money 18%, play money 18% 1.52 °C or higher: real money 7%, play money 7% Below 1.39 °C: real money 7%, play money 7% Volume: real money 24.9975, play money 2500 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Science, Environmental Indicators Related markets Global presence of algae in coral reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? (ID: 142272) Volume: real 343.39402505, play 38229.5986922 Bettors: real 10, play 81 Leading (real money): Global presence of algae in coral reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 72% Leading (play money): Global presence of algae in coral reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 36% Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC (ID: 138696) Volume: real 212.44384839, play 12350.3851826 Bettors: real 19, play 54 Leading (real money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 43% Leading (play money): Greater than 4.21 mm 74% Total area of dead Coral Reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? (ID: 142271) Volume: real 573.27241084, play 82713.55614915 Bettors: real 25, play 189 Leading (real money): Total area of dead Coral Reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 85% Leading (play money): Total area of dead Coral Reefs to increase in comparison to 2021? 90% Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 619.05373737, play 43484.79893412 Bettors: real 47, play 37 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% Keir Starmer out as UK’s prime minister by ...? (ID: 233775) Volume: real 1626.31484723, play 48245.98647658 Bettors: real 24, play 18 Leading (real money): December 31 66% Leading (play money): December 31 55%

Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Market Rules

What will the global average surface air temperature anomaly for the full year 2026 be, expressed in degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline? Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive range; exactly one will resolve "Yes".

The Primary Designated Source is the Data Action Foundation's Climate Change Tracker. Resolution uses the first Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly value reported by the tracker for the full year 2026 (timestamped after 2026). If the methodology changes substantially, Futuur might follow the same methodology to calculate the value for 2026. Otherwise, this question may be annulled.

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