São Tomé and Príncipe presidential election winner (2026)
Market Rules
This event predicts the winner of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential election. The first round is scheduled for July 19, 2026; if no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes, a runoff between the top two candidates is held. A candidate wins this event if they are declared the winner of the election by São Tomé and Príncipe's National Electoral Commission, either by absolute majority in the first round or by winning the runoff. Each of the markets below covers one declared candidate; exactly one will resolve "Yes". If the winner is not one of the candidates listed below, all listed markets resolve "No".
In the case of withdrawal, disqualification, death of the candidate before the relevant round, or defeat, this market will resolve "No". If the election is postponed and not concluded by December 31, 2026 (23:59 UTC), all listed markets resolve "No". In ambiguous edge cases (contested results, recounts), resolution follows the prevailing attribution at the moment the National Electoral Commission officially declares the winner.
The Primary Designated Source is the official results published by the National Electoral Commission of São Tomé and Príncipe (Comissão Eleitoral Nacional). A consensus of credible reporting (Agência Lusa, RFI Português, Reuters) may be used to confirm the official outcome.