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How high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? Hit 5.5%: real money 7%, play money 50% Hit 5.7%: real money 5%, play money 10% Hit 6.0%: real money 3%, play money 3% Hit 4.8%: real money 99%, play money 99% Hit 5.0%: real money 99%, play money 99% Hit 5.2%: real money 99%, play money 98% Volume: real money 942.04410049, play money 64450.38171734 Bettors: real money 23, play money 13 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, Interest Rates Related markets US basic interest rate at the end of 2026 (ID: 231723) Volume: real 1012.11697173, play 119694.55661901 Bettors: real 41, play 33 Leading (real money): 3.5% or more 92% Leading (play money): 3.5% or more 92% Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026 (ID: 231724) Volume: real 1922.14262321, play 49243.53820347 Bettors: real 62, play 34 Leading (real money): 0 91% Leading (play money): 0 89% Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362) Volume: real 1759.43507105, play 37150.61303342 Bettors: real 24, play 120 Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 31% Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 75%

How high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Market Rules

Each market in this event resolves "Yes" if the US 10-year Treasury par yield reaches or exceeds the listed value on any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, per the US Department of the Treasury’s "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" dataset. Markets resolve independently — more than one can resolve "Yes".

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  • almascript: looks like we hit 5.0% on sept 15th? or am I looking at wrong chart

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