Atmospheric methane concentrations to grow in 2026?
Market Rules
SUMMARY
This market resolves on whether the WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports a higher globally averaged concentration of methane in 2026 than in 2025. The 2026 figure is expected in the Bulletin published in the second half of 2027, and the 2025 baseline is the value in Bulletin No. 22.
FULL DETAILS
If the WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin that first reports global methane (CH₄) concentrations for 2026 (expected as Bulletin No. 23, in the second half of 2027) shows a globally averaged surface mole fraction of methane for 2026 higher than the 2025 value published in the preceding WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (No. 22), this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The 2026 figure is an annual average, so measurements from all of 2026 count, including those made before this market was published; values for any other year are not taken into account, except the 2025 value used as the baseline. The Primary Designated Source is the World Meteorological Organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (Global Atmosphere Watch), published at wmo.int.
Values are compared at the precision the Bulletin reports (whole parts per billion), using the central estimate and ignoring the stated uncertainty range; equal values resolve "No". The 2025 baseline is the value as first published in Bulletin No. 22; any revision of 2025 in the later Bulletin does not change the baseline. If the WMO does not publish the Bulletin, the global annual mean published by the WMO World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG, Japan Meteorological Agency) is used instead. Resolution reflects the substantive intent: whether the atmospheric concentration of methane rose in 2026.