Hole in the Ozone layer to increase in 2027?
Market Rules
SUMMARY
This market resolves on whether the Antarctic ozone hole is larger in 2027 than in 2026, measured by NASA Ozone Watch's mean ozone hole area for September 7 to October 13 of each year. The ozone layer reaches its seasonal low in this window, and NASA typically posts the season's statistics shortly after it ends.
FULL DETAILS
If the mean Southern Hemisphere ozone hole area for the September 7 to October 13, 2027 period, as published by NASA Ozone Watch in its annual ozone hole statistics, is larger than the same mean for September 7 to October 13, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Only these two seasonal means count; daily values, single-day maximums and other periods are not taken into account. The Primary Designated Source is NASA Goddard's Ozone Watch annual data table (ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/statistics/annual_data.html).
Values are compared at the precision NASA publishes (million km²); equal values resolve "No". The figures as first shown in NASA's table once the 2027 season mean is posted are used, and later revisions do not affect resolution. If NASA Ozone Watch does not publish the 2027 figure, the equivalent seasonal statistic reported by NOAA or the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service is used. Resolution reflects the substantive intent: whether the 2027 Antarctic ozone hole was larger than the 2026 one.