Arctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
Market Rules
SUMMARY
This market resolves on whether the Arctic sea ice minimum extent in 2027, which is usually reached in September, is lower than the 2026 minimum, as shown on NASA's Arctic sea ice vital signs page (NSIDC data). NASA and NSIDC reported the 2026 minimum on September 12, 2026.
FULL DETAILS
If the annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent for 2027, as displayed by NASA on its Arctic Sea Ice vital signs page, is lower than the annual minimum shown there for 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Only the 2027 and 2026 annual minimums count; daily or monthly values and other years are not taken into account. The Primary Designated Source is NASA's Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent vital sign (climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice), based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) satellite data.
Values are compared at the precision NASA displays (million km²); equal values resolve "No". Futuur will use the data as available on October 31, 2027; later revisions do not affect resolution. If NASA has not displayed the 2027 minimum by then, the 2027 and 2026 minimums reported by NSIDC's Sea Ice Index are used instead. Resolution reflects the substantive intent: whether the 2027 Arctic sea ice minimum was lower than 2026's.