Fed interest rate decision — October 2026
- 50+ bps decrease1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
- No change83%
- 25 bps increase16%
- 50+ bps increase1%
Finance
20
US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September
- 2.7% or less12%
- 2.80%3%
- 2.90%3%
- 3.00%55%
- 3.10%21%
- 3.20%4%
- 3.3% or more2%
US headline inflation rate in September (month-over-month CPI)
- Above 0.4%90%
- Above 0.5%43%
- Above 0.6%8%
- Above 0.7%4%
- Above 0.8%1%
US GDP growth in Q3 2026
- Less than 0.5%1%
- Between 0.5% and 1.0%1%
- Between 1.0% and 1.5%2%
- Between 1.5% and 2.0%3%
- Between 2.0% and 2.5%11%
- Between 2.5% and 3.0%12%
- More than 3.0%67%
US Core CPI inflation (month-over-month): September
- Above 0.1%83%
- Above 0.2%29%
- Above 0.3%11%
- Above 0.4%1%
- Above 0.5%1%
- Above 0.6%1%
- Above 0.7%1%
- Above 0.8%2%
How high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Hit 4.8%99%
- Hit 5.0%99%
- Hit 5.2%99%
- Hit 5.5%46%
- Hit 5.7%27%
- Hit 6.0%3%
Will the US' sovereign credit rating be downgraded again by Fitch, Moody's or S&P by the end of 2026?
Yes15%
No85%
Emergency Fed meeting in 2026?
Yes10%
No90%
Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Yes9%
No91%
US Core PCE inflation (month-over-month) — September
- -0.1% or less1%
- 0.00%3%
- 0.10%12%
- 0.20%32%
- 0.30%35%
- 0.40%13%
- 0.5% or more4%
US nonfarm payrolls: October
- Above 082%
- Above 10,00081%
- Above 20,00071%
- Above 30,00065%
- Above 40,00060%
- Above 50,00056%
- Above 60,00060%
- Above 70,00050%
US unemployment: October
- Above 4.0%87%
- Above 4.1%61%
- Above 4.2%30%
- Above 4.6%10%
- Above 4.7%16%
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
- 089%
- 17%
- 22%
- 31%
- 6 or more1%
- 51%
- 41%
US basic interest rate at the end of 2026
- 3.5% or more89%
- 3.25%-3.49%4%
- 3.00%-3.24%1%
- 2.75%-2.99%1%
- 2.50%-2.74%1%
- 2.25%-2.49%1%
- Less than 2.25%1%
US annual inflation rate (CPI) at the end of 2026?
- Between 2.5% and 2,9%41%
- Between 2.0% and 2.4%26%
- Between 3.0% and 3.4%23%
- Between 1.5% and 1.9%9%
Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2026?
Yes8%
No92%
American average wage above 73,000 in 2025?
Yes12%
No88%
Will Lisa Cook leave the office of Federal Reserve governor in 2026?
Yes11%
No89%
US economic recession in 2026?
Yes10%
No90%
Will the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026?
Yes6%
No94%