Markets
Leaderboard
Will Israel neutralize Yahya Sinwar by the end of April? No: real money 97%, play money 96% Yes: real money 3%, play money 4% Volume: real money 441.04679835, play money 35400.1 Bettors: real money 6, play money 6 Categories: Politics, Middle East, Palestine Related markets Iran leadership change by...? (ID: 235762) Volume: real 476.71500591, play 45338.09430167 Bettors: real 15, play 15 Leading (real money): December 31 34% Leading (play money): December 31 32% Will a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026? (ID: 231622) Volume: real 555.23065067, play 45162.70037 Bettors: real 11, play 19 Leading (real money): Will a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026? 67% Leading (play money): Will a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026? 40% End of US military operation in Iran by ...? (ID: 237495) Volume: real 957.19306719, play 43466.90785718 Bettors: real 23, play 17 Leading (real money): June 30 60% Leading (play money): June 30 74% Will Iran no longer be an Islamic Republic by the end of 2026? (ID: 231628) Volume: real 374.68695277, play 34849.44287335 Bettors: real 10, play 25 Leading (real money): Will Iran no longer be an Islamic Republic by the end of 2026? 10% Leading (play money): Will Iran no longer be an Islamic Republic by the end of 2026? 14% Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026? (ID: 231636) Volume: real 236.98915192, play 23904.9876 Bettors: real 7, play 9 Leading (real money): Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026? 17% Leading (play money): Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026? 12%

Will Israel neutralize Yahya Sinwar by the end of April?

Market Rules

According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the mission of the military operation unleashed in Gaza is to entirely destroy Hamas and recover the hostages taken from Israel’s territory in October 2023. To achieve these objectives, some of Israel's targets were the leaders of Hamas, where Yahya Sinwar acts as chief in the Gaza Strip.

This market aims to predict if Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will get to neutralize Yahya Sinwar, the chief of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30th, 2024, any of the following actions is fulfilled by the IDF:

    1. Locate and reach Yahya Sinwar in person,
    2. Capture Yahya Sinwar, or
    3. Confirm the death of Yahya Sinwar as a consequence of any activity performed by the IDF.

The occurrence of any of the situations above will be assessed based on official statements made by the IDF, Hamas, the United Nations, or credible news outlets.

Tags

Related Markets