When will OpenAI release GPT-5? Q3, 2025 or before: real money 99%, play money 96% Q1, 2026: real money 1%, play money 1% Q4, 2025: real money 1%, play money 1% Q2, 2026: real money 1%, play money 1% Not before Q3, 2026: real money 1%, play money 1% Volume: real money 695.653232, play money 23530 Bettors: real money 10, play money 8 Categories: Finance, Artificial Intelligence Related markets Which company will have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? (ID: 231720) Volume: real 2307.25848246, play 198721.6477 Bettors: real 24, play 48 Leading (real money): Anthropic 53% Leading (play money): Anthropic 68%

When will OpenAI release GPT-5?

Market Rules

This market predicts the calendar quarter in which OpenAI will publicly release the next iteration of its LLM (Large Language Model) to succeed GPT-4. The model doesn't have to be named "GPT-5", as long as OpenAI clearly announces it as the successor to the GPT-4 model or family of models.

The market’s resolution will rely on (i) the OpenAI blog announcement timestamp, (ii) press releases on openai.com/news, or (iii) the GPT‑5 listing in OpenAI’s API documentation. If those sources are unavailable, reputable news outlets explicitly citing OpenAI’s official release date may serve as secondary confirmation.

If OpenAI announces that it will discontinue the GPT model family or incorporate it into another model family or model before releasing a successor, the corresponding market canceled. If that happens, all active wagers will be returned to their respective forecasters at their original purchase price.

Tags

Related Markets