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Winning party of Wales' Senedd election Plaid Cymru: real money 65%, play money 54% Reform UK: real money 33%, play money 34% Tie: real money 6%, play money 6% Welsh Labour: real money 3%, play money 3% Welsh Conservatives: real money 3%, play money 3% Volume: real money 201.58642242, play money 8000 Bettors: real money 5, play money 0 Categories: Politics, Europe, UK Related markets Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? (ID: 222362) Volume: real 1565.19703063, play 78179.99024344 Bettors: real 17, play 108 Leading (real money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 44% Leading (play money): Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? 73% Will Tarcísio de Freitas run for President of Brazil in 2026? (ID: 215103) Volume: real 1807.60614471, play 103548.00377593 Bettors: real 26, play 89 Leading (real money): Will Tarcísio de Freitas run for President of Brazil in 2026? 5% Leading (play money): Will Tarcísio de Freitas run for President of Brazil in 2026? 3% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2432.63971531, play 114003.76993742 Bettors: real 38, play 207 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 48% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 72% Brazil’s Next President Elect (ID: 233774) Volume: real 2732.60041203, play 483208.99521693 Bettors: real 89, play 123 Leading (real money): Lula 51% Leading (play money): Lula 45%

Winning party of Wales' Senedd election

Market Rules

The 2026 Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election is scheduled for May 7, 2026. Under the new electoral system, 96 members of the Senedd (MSs) will be elected across 16 multi-member constituencies using the D'Hondt method of proportional representation. The winning party is defined as the political party that wins the greatest number of seats. In this event, only the market corresponding to the party with the most seats will resolve to "Yes"; all others resolve to "No". If two or more parties finish with the same highest number of seats, only the "Tie" market resolves to "Yes".

Resolution will be based on the official results as declared by the returning officers or the Senedd Electoral Commission. Resolution may rely on concordant reporting by reliable news outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion in cases where official certification is delayed or partial vote count is sufficient to establish a winning party beyond mathematical doubt. Seats won by independent candidates are not attributed to any party.

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