Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman reach a legal settlement?

If the civil lawsuit Elon Musk v. Samuel Altman et al., Docket No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), is resolved by a settlement agreement between the parties rather than by a court judgment, this market will resolve to "Yes". A "settlement" means any out-of-court agreement — whether publicly disclosed or sealed — that results in the case being dismissed with prejudice, dismissed by stipulation, or otherwise terminated by mutual agreement of the parties. A consent decree or consent judgment also counts as a settlement. If the court issues a final judgment on the merits (whether for Musk or for the defendants), this market resolves to "No". If Musk voluntarily dismisses the case without a settlement agreement, this market resolves to "No".

Resolution will be based on the official court docket (PACER / CourtListener), specifically a stipulation of dismissal, notice of settlement, or equivalent filing, or concordant reporting by at least two of AP, Reuters, and AFP confirming a settlement. Resolution follows the spirit of the market: determining whether the parties reached a negotiated resolution rather than a court-imposed one.