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Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026? Yes: real money 22%, play money 22% No: real money 78%, play money 78% Volume: real money 99.99, play money 10000 Bettors: real money 0, play money 0 Categories: Finance, Economic Indicators, United States, GDP Related markets Winner of the next US Presidential Election (ID: 211457) Volume: real 2044.86415693, play 36521.10714014 Bettors: real 22, play 83 Leading (real money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 46% Leading (play money): Winner of the next US Presidential Election 36% Will Trump be impeached in his second term? (ID: 212720) Volume: real 3007.5194239, play 137081.00274465 Bettors: real 30, play 209 Leading (real money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 11% Leading (play money): Will Trump be impeached in his second term? 57% Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections (ID: 211468) Volume: real 1268.06728697, play 40478.30831664 Bettors: real 16, play 51 Leading (real money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 25% Leading (play money): Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections 44% Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? (ID: 231765) Volume: real 925.24553164, play 127895.40979507 Bettors: real 65, play 85 Leading (real money): Tulsi Gabbard 86% Leading (play money): Tulsi Gabbard 97% Trump to serve his full term? (ID: 198250) Volume: real 2609.78775908, play 114986.66327483 Bettors: real 39, play 211 Leading (real money): Trump to serve his full term? 93% Leading (play money): Trump to serve his full term? 74%

Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Market Rules

This market predicts whether the United States will report negative real GDP growth in at least one of the first three quarters of 2026 (Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026). If the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports a seasonally adjusted, annualized real GDP growth rate of less than 0% for any of Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026 — based on the BEA's third (final) estimate for that quarter, or the most recent published estimate available by December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC — this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The Primary Designated Source is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product release. Resolution uses the third estimate (final) where available, otherwise the most recent BEA estimate for the quarter as of December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC. A consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg) may confirm the BEA figures. In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.

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