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Will 2025 be the warmest year on record? Yes: real money 6%, play money 8% No: real money 94%, play money 92% Volume: real money 3516.37021452, play money 196980.48 Bettors: real money 29, play money 178 Categories: Science, Environmental Indicators Related markets Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 965.16141894, play 506232.79690227 Bettors: real 43, play 1221 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 62% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 49% Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? (ID: 231553) Volume: real 21.9200438, play 44109.67592288 Bettors: real 8, play 17 Leading (real money): Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? 23% Leading (play money): Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? 69% Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC (ID: 138696) Volume: real 316.75459546, play 17377.8751826 Bettors: real 23, play 58 Leading (real money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 43% Leading (play money): Greater than 4.21 mm 76%

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record?

Market Rules

Every year, NASA releases data about the Global Temperature Index - a measurement of the change in global surface temperature in comparison to its historical long-term average. According to that data, 2024 was the hottest year on record, with an increase of 1.28ºC in temperature.

If data for the 2025 Global Temperature Index shows an increase in global surface temperature (no smoothing) that is greater than or equal to that of 2024, indicating 2025 to at least tie the record as the hottest year ever, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Source: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

If NASA stops releasing data about the Global Temperature Index, Futuur may rely on data from alternative sources, such as Europe's Copernicus system.

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  • pedro_brito: NASA Releases Global Temperature Data - NASA

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