When will Anthropic release Claude 4’s successor?
Market Rules
This market predicts the calendar quarter in which Anthropic will publicly release the next major iteration of its LLM (Large Language Model) following Claude 4. Any model branded under the “Claude” umbrella (e.g., Claude, Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, etc) can be taken into account for this market, as long as its new version is confirmed by Anthropic as the first successor to the models in the Claude 4 family.
This market’s resolution will rely on (i) the timestamped announcement on anthropic.com, (ii) the press release in Anthropic’s official newsroom, or (iii) the model’s availability notification in Anthropic’s developer documentation. If those sources are temporarily inaccessible, reputable news outlets that explicitly cite Anthropic’s official release date may serve as secondary confirmation.
If Anthropic formally announces that it will discontinue the Claude model family or incorporate it into another model or family of models before releasing a successor, this market may be canceled. If that happens, all active wagers will be returned to their respective forecasters at their original purchase price.