When will OpenAI release GPT-5?
Market Rules
This market predicts the calendar quarter in which OpenAI will publicly release the next iteration of its LLM (Large Language Model) to succeed GPT-4. The model doesn't have to be named "GPT-5", as long as OpenAI clearly announces it as the successor to the GPT-4 model or family of models.
The market’s resolution will rely on (i) the OpenAI blog announcement timestamp, (ii) press releases on openai.com/news, or (iii) the GPT‑5 listing in OpenAI’s API documentation. If those sources are unavailable, reputable news outlets explicitly citing OpenAI’s official release date may serve as secondary confirmation.
If OpenAI announces that it will discontinue the GPT model family or incorporate it into another model family or model before releasing a successor, the corresponding market canceled. If that happens, all active wagers will be returned to their respective forecasters at their original purchase price.