Will China try to take Taiwan using military force in 2026?

This event predicts whether the People’s Republic of China will attempt to take control of Taiwan through kinetic military force at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive). The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official statements by the Chinese or Taiwanese governments, or widely recognized international reporting confirming kinetic military action against Taiwanese territory.

If China conducts kinetic military action aimed at taking control of Taiwanese territory during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Exercises, blockades, cyber operations, or shows of force without kinetic action on Taiwanese territory will not count. If official confirmations are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations. Resolution will reflect substantive kinetic military action, not escalation rhetoric. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.