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Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Market Rules

If the court issues a final judgment substantially in favor of Elon Musk in the civil lawsuit Elon Musk v. Samuel Altman et al., Docket No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers), this market will resolve to "Yes". "Substantially in favor" means the court grants one or more of Musk's principal claims — such as enjoining OpenAI's conversion to a for-profit entity, awarding monetary damages, or ordering specific performance related to OpenAI's original nonprofit mission. A mixed verdict where Musk prevails on at least one principal claim also resolves "Yes". A full dismissal, a verdict entirely in favor of the defendants, or a voluntary withdrawal by Musk resolves "No".

If the case is resolved by settlement rather than a court judgment, this market resolves to "No". Resolution will be based on the official court docket (PACER / CourtListener) or concordant reporting by at least two of AP, Reuters, and AFP. Appeals do not affect resolution, so the trial court's final judgment governs.

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