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What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027? Less than 85.1%: real money 7%, play money 7% Between 85.1% and 89.0% (inclusive): real money 13%, play money 13% Between 89.1% and 93.0% (inclusive): real money 45%, play money 45% Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive): real money 25%, play money 25% 96.1% or higher: real money 10%, play money 10% Volume: real money 0.4005389, play money 0.4 Bettors: real money 8, play money 8 Categories: Finance, Artificial Intelligence Related markets China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? (ID: 133863) Volume: real 1711.95573343, play 247606.92725054 Bettors: real 35, play 510 Leading (real money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 100% Leading (play money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 9% Companies to go public in 2026 (ID: 233778) Volume: real 1042.78421446, play 47149.79154275 Bettors: real 63, play 55 Leading (real money): SpaceX 91% Leading (play money): SpaceX 94% What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026? (ID: 239444) Volume: real 3014.62666363, play 9707.83641566 Bettors: real 34, play 33 Leading (real money): Between $ 60,000 and $ 74,999.99 60% Leading (play money): Between $ 60,000 and $ 74,999.99 31%

What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

Market Rules

This event predicts the highest verified score achieved on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark (private evaluation set) by any AI system, as reported on the official ARC Prize leaderboard, at any time before January 1, 2027, 00:00:00 UTC. Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive percentage range of the maximum score; exactly one market will resolve "Yes".

The Primary Designated Source is the ARC Prize official leaderboard (arcprize.org/leaderboard), specifically the highest verified ARC-AGI-2 private-set score listed on the leaderboard as of January 1, 2027, 00:00:00 UTC. Only scores that ARC Prize publicly verifies (i.e., submitted, evaluated, and listed on the leaderboard) count. Self-reported, unverified, or test-set results that have not been validated by the ARC Prize do not count. If the leaderboard methodology changes substantially, Futuur might follow the same methodology to determine the value. Otherwise, this question will be annulled.

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