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What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026? Less than 80%: real money 15%, play money 15% Between 80.0% and 89.9% (inclusive): real money 30%, play money 30% Between 90.0% and 99.9% (inclusive): real money 50%, play money 50% 100% or higher: real money 5%, play money 5% Volume: real money 100.27050802, play money 10000.3 Bettors: real money 6, play money 6 Categories: Finance, Artificial Intelligence Related markets China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? (ID: 133863) Volume: real 1585.53526888, play 232657.621554 Bettors: real 35, play 503 Leading (real money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 100% Leading (play money): China to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026? 9% Which company will have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? (ID: 231720) Volume: real 3239.18814725, play 250966.25260459 Bettors: real 50, play 68 Leading (real money): Anthropic 86% Leading (play money): Anthropic 76%

What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

Market Rules

This event predicts the score of the best-performing bot in the ACX 2026 Prediction Contest, expressed as a percentage of the average score of the top 5 human participants in that same contest. Each market below corresponds to one range; exactly one market will resolve "Yes".

The Primary Designated Source is the official ACX 2026 leaderboard published on Astral Codex Ten and/or the Metaculus ACX2026 tournament results page. Resolution uses the final official scores published after the contest concludes. "Best bot" means the participant identified by ACX organizers as the highest-scoring entry whose forecasts were generated by an automated system without continuous human override. "Top 5 human average" is the arithmetic mean of the final scores of the top five human participants ranked by contest score. If the ACX 2026 final results are not published by March 1, 2027, the question will be annulled.

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