Fed interest rate decision — October 202650+ bps decrease1%25 bps decrease1%No change83%25 bps increase16%50+ bps increase1%
US headline inflation rate in September (month-over-month CPI)Above 0.4%90%Above 0.5%43%Above 0.6%8%Above 0.7%4%Above 0.8%1%
US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September2.7% or less12%2.80%3%2.90%3%3.00%55%3.10%21%3.20%4%3.3% or more2%
US Core CPI inflation (month-over-month): SeptemberAbove 0.1%83%Above 0.2%29%Above 0.3%11%Above 0.4%1%Above 0.5%1%Above 0.6%1%Above 0.7%1%Above 0.8%2%
Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?Kristi Noem32%Kash Patel27%Pete Hegseth26%Howard Lutnick25%Peter Navarro25%RFK Jr.25%Brendan Carr19%Marco Rubio5%
How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?3 or less43%4 to 628%7 to 915%10 to 129%13 to 155%
US Presidential Election Winner in 2028JD Vance28%Gavin Newsom28%Marco Rubio26%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez9%Kamala Harris9%
Will the US' sovereign credit rating be downgraded again by Fitch, Moody's or S&P by the end of 2026?Yes15%No85%