Doomsday Clock to reach less than 90 seconds to midnight in 2025? Yes: real money 79%, play money 67% No: real money 21%, play money 33% Volume: real money 487.7853688, play money 17400 Bettors: real money 11, play money 15 Categories: Politics, World Politics, Nuclear Issues Related markets Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? (ID: 231553) Volume: real 215.40651517, play 48985.7979 Bettors: real 6, play 12 Leading (real money): Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? 24% Leading (play money): Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? 39% Will a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026? (ID: 231622) Volume: real 555.23065067, play 45162.70037 Bettors: real 11, play 19 Leading (real money): Will a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026? 67% Leading (play money): Will a US-Iran nuclear control deal be signed in 2026? 40% Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026? (ID: 231636) Volume: real 236.98915192, play 23904.9876 Bettors: real 7, play 9 Leading (real money): Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026? 17% Leading (play money): Will Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026? 12% Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? (ID: 134871) Volume: real 1069.87900473, play 444831.44739855 Bettors: real 43, play 1218 Leading (real money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 62% Leading (play money): Brazil to reduce illegal deforestation by at least 50% by 2026? 29% Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC (ID: 138696) Volume: real 212.44384839, play 12350.3851826 Bettors: real 19, play 54 Leading (real money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 43% Leading (play money): Greater than 4.21 mm 74%

Doomsday Clock to reach less than 90 seconds to midnight in 2025?

Market Rules

This market aims to predict whether the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will announce that the Doomsday Clock has been adjusted to less than "90 seconds to midnight" on or before 23:59 UTC on January 31, 2025. If no such announcement is made by this referred deadline, the market will resolve to "No." For this market, a time of exactly 90 seconds to midnight will not qualify as less than 90 seconds.

The primary source for verification will be the official announcement from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, typically made during their annual Doomsday Clock update. This announcement may appear on their official website, press releases, or verified social media accounts. Secondary sources, such as reputable news outlets, may be used if they directly reference the Bulletin’s update.

If no update to the Doomsday Clock is announced by the referred deadline, the market will resolve to "No." In cases of ambiguity or conflicting reports, priority will be given to official statements from the Bulletin. Any announcement made after the deadline, regardless of its content, will not affect the market’s resolution.

Tags

Related Markets