Will 2026 be the warmest year on record?

This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be NASA’s Global Temperature Index (GISTEMP) annual data release for 2026.

If NASA’s data shows that 2026 has the highest global average temperature on record at the time of release, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If NASA ceases to publish this data or it is exceptionally unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on equivalent datasets from other major climate authorities, such as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. Resolution will reflect the substantive ranking of 2026’s temperature relative to prior years, not later data revisions. If a definitive determination cannot be made, Futuur may cancel this market with a public explanation.