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Arctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026? Yes: real money 84%, play money 83% No: real money 16%, play money 17% Volume: real money 112.19444913, play money 12561.58724918 Bettors: real money 8, play money 13 Categories: Science, Environmental Indicators Related markets Hole in the Ozone layer to increase in 2026? (ID: 224583) Volume: real 154.92561888, play 15611.40702481 Bettors: real 7, play 12 Leading (real money): Hole in the Ozone layer to increase in 2026? 43% Leading (play money): Hole in the Ozone layer to increase in 2026? 38% Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? (ID: 231553) Volume: real 221.8600438, play 64109.67592288 Bettors: real 8, play 17 Leading (real money): Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? 23% Leading (play money): Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? 69% Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC (ID: 138696) Volume: real 212.83978154, play 12350.5851826 Bettors: real 23, play 58 Leading (real money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 43% Leading (play money): Greater than 4.21 mm 76%

Arctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026?

Market Rules

Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum extension each September.

If the data displayed by NASA at https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/

on October 2026 indicates that the annual September minimum Arctic sea ice extent was lower than that observed in 2025, this market will resolve to “Yes".

Futuur will only take into account the data as available by early October 2026. Possible future revisions of the figures will not alter the resolution of the market.

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