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Arctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026? Yes: real money 83%, play money 80% No: real money 17%, play money 20% Volume: real money 112.09434684, play money 11350.0026 Bettors: real money 7, play money 10 Categories: Science, Environmental Indicators Related markets Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? (ID: 231553) Volume: real 215.40651517, play 48985.7979 Bettors: real 6, play 12 Leading (real money): Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? 24% Leading (play money): Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? 39% Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC (ID: 138696) Volume: real 212.44384839, play 12350.3851826 Bettors: real 19, play 54 Leading (real money): Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm 43% Leading (play money): Greater than 4.21 mm 74% Hole in the Ozone layer to increase in 2026? (ID: 224583) Volume: real 100.18035232, play 14699.99819152 Bettors: real 4, play 8 Leading (real money): Hole in the Ozone layer to increase in 2026? 27% Leading (play money): Hole in the Ozone layer to increase in 2026? 41%

Arctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026?

Market Rules

Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum extension each September.

If the data displayed by NASA at https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/

on October 2026 indicates that the annual September minimum Arctic sea ice extent was lower than that observed in 2025, this market will resolve to “Yes".

Futuur will only take into account the data as available by early October 2026. Possible future revisions of the figures will not alter the resolution of the market.

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