Which company will have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Market Rules
This event predicts which company will own the AI model with the highest Arena Score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard published at lmarena.ai, specifically the table shown under the “Leaderboard” tab with style controls turned off. The relevant data will be the Arena Score values displayed on lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, checked on June 30, 2026.
If the leaderboard is temporarily unavailable at the scheduled check time, these markets will remain open and will resolve based on the first moment the leaderboard becomes available again. If two or more models are tied for the highest Arena Score at the check time, the markets will resolve in favor of the company whose name, as listed among the markets, comes first in alphabetical order. Futuur will resolve these markets based on the substantive ranking outcome shown by the leaderboard, not on minor formatting or presentation changes. If the Chatbot Arena leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, Futuur will resolve the markets using an alternative widely recognized LLM evaluation source, or may cancel the markets if no fair determination is possible.