Will Christine Lagarde still be the president of the European Central Bank through the end of 2026?
Yes85%
No15%
Eu
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Next Prime Minister of Spain?
- Alberto Núñez Feijóo90%
- Pedro Sánchez12%
- Santiago Abascal3%
- Isabel Díaz Ayuso3%
Winner of France’s presidential election
- Marine Le Pen47%
- Édouard Philippe20%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%
- Jordan Bardella10%
- Dominique de Villepin9%
- Gabriel Attal9%
Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?
- October 313%
- November 307%
Spain general election winner
- PP89%
- PSOE12%
Euro area’s inflation rate in 2026
- Less than 1.4%1%
- 1.4% to 1.6%2%
- 1.7% to 1.9%5%
- 2.0% to 2.2%5%
- 2.3% to 2.5%6%
- 2.6% to 2.9%4%
- 3.0% or more78%
Lecornu out as French Prime Minister by...?
- December 3124%
- July 2750%
European Central Bank interest rate decision in December
- 50+ bps decrease1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
- No change11%
- 25 bps increase86%
- 50+ bps increase1%
How many of the negotiating chapters required to join the EU will Montenegro have closed at the end of 2026?
- 14 or fewer5%
- Between 15 and 17 (inclusive)7%
- Between 18 and 22 (inclusive)34%
- Between 23 and 27 (inclusive)38%
- 28 or more15%
EUR/USD exchange rate at the end of 2026
- Less than 1.1014%
- Between 1.10 and 1.1744%
- More than 1.17, less than 1.2429%
- Between 1.24 and 1.3012%
- More than 1.302%
Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?
Yes11%
No89%
Will France pass a 2027 national budget by December 31, 2026?
Yes53%
No47%
Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?
Yes20%
No80%
Will the European Union (EU) block X (Twitter) in 2026?
Yes8%
No92%
Will Ukraine sign an EU Accession Treaty by December 2027?
Yes7%
No93%
Will the EU order a general-purpose AI model withdrawn or restricted from its market before 2027?
Yes3%
No97%
Laurent Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by...?
- October 316%
- November 3014%
Will the US announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops from Europe by the end of 2026?
Yes11%
No89%