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Finance

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US Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September

2.7% or less6%
2.80%2%
2.90%6%
3.00%14%
3.10%47%
3.20%4%
3.3% or more1%

Fed interest rate decision — October 2026

50+ bps decrease1%
25 bps decrease1%
No change86%
25 bps increase16%
50+ bps increase1%

How high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Hit 4.8%99%
Hit 5.0%99%
Hit 5.2%99%
Hit 5.5%29%
Hit 5.7%21%
Hit 6.0%3%

Negative growth in Brazil's GDP in any quarter of 2026?

Brazil Selic rate decision — November 2026 COPOM meeting

50+ bps decrease3%
25 bps decrease87%
No change10%
25 bps increase1%
50+ bps increase1%

Japan 10-year government bond yield at the end of 2026

3.0% or more63%
Between 2.8% and 3.0%15%
Between 2.6% and 2.8%9%
Between 2.4% and 2.6%5%
Between 2.0% and 2.2%4%
Between 2.2% and 2.4%2%
Below 2.0%2%

US Core PCE inflation (month-over-month) — September

-0.1% or less21%
0.00%22%
0.10%28%
0.20%21%
0.30%59%
0.40%29%
0.5% or more23%

Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026

090%
16%
22%
31%
51%
6 or more1%
41%

Euro area’s inflation rate in 2026

Less than 1.4%1%
1.4% to 1.6%2%
1.7% to 1.9%5%
2.0% to 2.2%5%
2.3% to 2.5%6%
2.6% to 2.9%5%
3.0% or more77%

Will Christine Lagarde still be the president of the European Central Bank through the end of 2026?

Bank of Mexico interest rate decision — November 2026

50+ bps decrease1%
25 bps decrease17%
No change80%
25 bps increase2%
50+ bps increase1%

US unemployment: October

Above 4.0%87%
Above 4.1%61%
Above 4.2%30%
Above 4.6%8%
Above 4.7%10%

US nonfarm payrolls: October

Above 082%
Above 10,00081%
Above 20,00071%
Above 30,00065%
Above 40,00060%
Above 50,00056%
Above 60,00060%
Above 70,00050%

US annual inflation rate (CPI) at the end of 2026?

Between 2.5% and 2,9%41%
Between 2.0% and 2.4%26%
Between 3.0% and 3.4%23%
Between 1.5% and 1.9%9%

Petrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term?

USD/BRL exchange rate at the end of 2026

Less than 4.9011%
Between 4.90 and 5.2059%
More than 5.20, less than 5.5028%
Between 5.50 and 5.801%
More than 5.80, less than 6.101%
6.10 or more1%

US basic interest rate at the end of 2026

3.5% or more89%
3.25%-3.49%4%
3.00%-3.24%1%
2.75%-2.99%1%
2.50%-2.74%1%
2.25%-2.49%1%
Less than 2.25%1%

MSCI World Index performance in 2026

Less than 0%7%
More than 0%, less than 5%11%
Between 5% and 10%17%
Above 10%65%

Brazil’s public debt-GDP ratio at the end of 2026

77% or less7%
Between 77.1% and 82.0%13%
Between 82.1% and 87.0%61%
Between 87.1% and 92.0%9%
92.1% or more8%

Brazil monthly inflation (IPCA) — October 2026

0.19% or less5%
Between 0.20% and 0.29%14%
Between 0.30% and 0.39%25%
Between 0.40% and 0.49%21%
0.50% or more34%

United Kingdom’s interest rate at the end of 2026

3.0% or less4%
3.25%5%
3.50%6%
3.75%16%
Greater than 3.75%69%

MSCI Emerging Markets Index performance in 2026

Less than 0%4%
More than 0%, less than 10%11%
Between 10% and 20%18%
Above 20%67%

Russia’s interest rate at the end of 2026

10% or Less9%
Between 10.0%, and 11.75%10%
Between 12.00% and 13.75%54%
Between 14.00% and 15.75%21%
16% or more5%

Brazil's GDP annual growth rate in 2026

1.0% or less6%
Between 1.1% and 1.5%12%
Between 1.6% and 2.0%55%
Between 2.1% and 2.5%22%
2.6% or more5%

EUR/USD exchange rate at the end of 2026

Less than 1.1014%
Between 1.10 and 1.1744%
More than 1.17, less than 1.2429%
Between 1.24 and 1.3012%
More than 1.302%

US GDP growth in Q3 2026

Less than 0.5%1%
Between 0.5% and 1.0%1%
Between 1.0% and 1.5%2%
Between 1.5% and 2.0%3%
Between 2.0% and 2.5%11%
Between 2.5% and 3.0%12%
More than 3.0%67%

Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026

50+ bps decrease1%
25 bps decrease1%
No change94%
25 bps increase6%
50+ bps increase1%

Japan 2-year government bond yield at the end of 2026

2.0% or more40%
Between 1.4% and 1.6%19%
Between 1.6% and 1.8%16%
Between 1.8% and 2.0%14%
Between 1.2% and 1.4%6%
Between 1.0% and 1.2%2%
Below 1.0%1%

Brazil’s country risk at the end of December 2026

100.000 Or Less1%
Between 100.01 and 140.0076%
Between 140.01 and 180.0014%
Between 180.01 and 220.005%
220.01 Or More5%

Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2026?

Drop in Mexico’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?

Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Will Brazil’s sovereign credit rating be downgraded by Fitch, Moody’s, or S&P in 2026?

Will Lisa Cook leave the office of Federal Reserve governor in 2026?

Either Fitch or S&P to raise Brazil’s sovereign bond rating in 2026?

US economic recession in 2026?

Drop in India’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?

Will the US' sovereign credit rating be downgraded again by Fitch, Moody's or S&P by the end of 2026?

Number of refineries controlled by Petrobras at the end of Lula's term?

11 or more96%
Between 10 and 62%
Between 5 and 31%
2 or less1%

Which price will the USD/CNY exchange rate hit in 2026

7.30 CNY9%
6.75 CNY93%